freenode #wikipedia

2008-05-15 22:43 < geniice> Messedrocker again that would be a rather odd character type slection assult,engineer,spec ops,stripper???
2008-05-15 22:44 < Messedrocker> geniice, it'd be an NPC
2008-05-15 22:44 < geniice> battfield 2 doesn't have NPCs really
2008-05-15 22:44 < E_Wing> Is this (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User_talk%3AError_-128&diff=212753967&oldid=212753786) can be considered a reason for direct blocking?
2008-05-15 22:45 < geniice> of who?
2008-05-15 22:46 < Alkivar> wow here's another poor contextual choice by a newspaper:
2008-05-15 22:46 < Alkivar> http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2368/2494083553_4fe7576dc2_o.png
2008-05-15 22:47 < Messedrocker> background color in CSS is background:#whatever, right?
2008-05-15 22:47 < E_Wing> Please see http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User_talk%3AError_-128&diff=212753967&oldid=212753786
2008-05-15 22:48 < E_Wing> Actually I'm about to warn User:Error - 128 with an npa1 if I didn't see his history
2008-05-15 22:52 < geniice> E_Wing I've hit people with indef blocks for simular
2008-05-15 22:53 < geniice> but in this case I feel warn would be enough
2008-05-15 22:54 < Mahlzahn> yes, "I'm going to kill you" seems like mild harassment :)
2008-05-15 22:55 < Ceiling_Cat> HELLO EVERYONE, KATS AND NON-KATS ALIKE
2008-05-15 22:56 < Not_the_NSA> HAI CEILING_CAT
2008-05-15 22:56 < Mahlzahn> geniice: I suspect this guy is not a newbie - no newbie is into TW by his 15th edit.
2008-05-15 22:56 < geniice> no
2008-05-15 22:57 < Ceiling_Cat> "Former OLPC security developer Ivan Krstic had a lot to say about Windows on the XO as well."
2008-05-15 22:57 < Ceiling_Cat> I met Ivan
2008-05-15 22:57 < Ceiling_Cat> he organized the Wikimania 2006 hacking days
2008-05-15 22:57 < Kofiz> KAT (n) - an evergreen shrub
2008-05-15 22:58 < Ceiling_Cat> KOFIZ - A KAT IS A FURRY, FOUR-LEGGED CREATURE FOUND ON THE INTERNET, USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A CAPTION WRITTEN IN PIDGIN ENGLISH
2008-05-15 22:59 < Kofiz> Oh, OK.
2008-05-15 22:59 < Ceiling_Cat> SEE ALSO: http://xkcd.com/262/
2008-05-15 22:59 < Kofiz> Who's this Allison Stokke chick, anti-wiki folks on GameFAQs are whining about her article being deleted
2008-05-15 23:00 < Cyrius> high school pole vaulter
2008-05-15 23:00 < geniice> don't think she is high school any more
2008-05-15 23:01 < Cyrius> sources say she's at UC-Berkeley
2008-05-15 23:01 < The359> she was famous because she's hot
2008-05-15 23:01 < geniice> A not very notibable girl who certian male parts of the net decided to drool over
2008-05-15 23:01 < Kofiz> "Notability is the worst thing to happen to Wikipedia." <-- I was under the impression it had been an official guideline for years but OK
2008-05-15 23:01 < The359> and pictures of her went around the internet
2008-05-15 23:01 < quanticle|away> Ceiling_Cat: Also see - http://xkcd.com/231/
2008-05-15 23:01 < The359> she had a tight athletic uniform on and stuff
2008-05-15 23:01 < The359> nice rack
2008-05-15 23:01 < geniice> The359 only internet famous and only a bit internet famous at that
2008-05-15 23:02 < The359> yes
2008-05-15 23:02 * Ceiling_Cat huggles quanticle tightly, lowers his IQ
2008-05-15 23:02 < quanticle> Ceiling_Cat: Fortunately, IQ losses due to cat proximity are reversible.
2008-05-15 23:03 < gwern> how was Stokke not notability? wasn't there tons of coverage of her, even omitting the pic stuff?
2008-05-15 23:03 < Ceiling_Cat> quanticle - what happens if someone glus fur, whiskers, and a tail on you, effectivly turning you into a cat?
2008-05-15 23:03 < Cyrius> I found myself saying "you're a kitty!" recently
2008-05-15 23:03 < Kofiz> These guys I hang out with think that Wikipedia took a turn for a worse simply because people started deleting trivia sections and articles at the borderline of notability
2008-05-15 23:03 * Ceiling_Cat has a nerd-orgasmic DVD in his hands
2008-05-15 23:03 < The359> she was only covered because of the pics, gwern
2008-05-15 23:03 < Ceiling_Cat> Guess which it is?
2008-05-15 23:03 < Cyrius> Kofiz: and they're on gamefaqs?
2008-05-15 23:03 < The359> She did nothing notable athletically
2008-05-15 23:03 < quanticle> Ceiling_Cat: Then, paradoxically, intelligence takes a huge boost. Cats are amongst the smartest, most cunning creatures around, after all.
2008-05-15 23:04 < Ceiling_Cat> quanticle - I see
2008-05-15 23:04 < Ceiling_Cat> So I have a copy of Stargate:Ark of Truth
2008-05-15 23:04 < Kofiz> actually screw them they're not my friends I just hang out on that board to osmose gaming news
2008-05-15 23:04 < Ceiling_Cat> I get to find out what happens to SG1 now
2008-05-15 23:05 < Cyrius> I'm not going to manage to care much what GameFAQs people think
2008-05-15 23:05 < gwern> The359: I understood she had won some important stuff and set some records
2008-05-15 23:05 < quanticle> The359: Not just Internet famous, though. There was some mainstream media coverage of Ms. Stokke, because some pr0n company was apparently using her pic in one of its promos, despite having no other media of hers.
2008-05-15 23:06 < geniice> quanticle not uncommon some Girl on Flickr had a simular issue
2008-05-15 23:06 < gwern> ooh, new war nerd
2008-05-15 23:06 < geniice> quanticle they just put any girl on the box cover
2008-05-15 23:06 < The359> I don't recall that, gwern
2008-05-15 23:06 < The359> I also seem to remember her rejecting all the attention
2008-05-15 23:07 < The359> and have a douchebag boyfriend
2008-05-15 23:07 < geniice> "From Lebanon To Iraq: We’re In Deep Shia Now"
2008-05-15 23:07 < geniice> one has to ask why
2008-05-15 23:07 < geniice> I mean how mich kit have we soild to saudi arabia now?
2008-05-15 23:08 < gwern> 'soild to saudi arabia' lol
2008-05-15 23:09 < gwern> http://blog.wired.com/business/2008/05/wikimedia-board.html <-- argh now wired is picking up the moeller thing?
2008-05-15 23:12 < quanticle> "Cal's message: You won't be masturbating to Allison on our bandwidth. Go elsewhere with your unwieldy erection, you pervert."
2008-05-15 23:13 < quanticle> geniice: Where's that from?
2008-05-15 23:13 < gwern> aw, but we likes her so much!
2008-05-15 23:13 < gwern> 9 out of 10 Ceiling_Cats agree: Allison Stokkes is masturbalicious9$!
2008-05-15 23:13 < geniice> quanticle?
2008-05-15 23:13 < quanticle> geniice: We've sold lots of kit to the Saudis but that doesn't necessarily imply they can use any of it.
2008-05-15 23:14 < geniice> da which is rather the problem
2008-05-15 23:14 < quanticle> geniice: "From Lebanon to Iraq: We're in Deep Shia Now"
2008-05-15 23:14 < quanticle> geniice: Where's that from?
2008-05-15 23:14 < geniice> http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=19027&IBLOCK_ID=35
2008-05-15 23:14 < Cyrius> gwern: I am amused by the description of Wikipedia as a "public utility"
2008-05-15 23:15 < Demi> more like a pubic utility
2008-05-15 23:15 < quanticle> geniice: Ah. So is that the new War Nerd column?
2008-05-15 23:15 < geniice> yes
2008-05-15 23:15 < Cyrius> Demi: I typoed that at first
2008-05-15 23:15 < quanticle> geniice: Sweet. Found another War Nerd!
2008-05-15 23:15 < geniice> On paper any shia miltia looking halfway effective should be zapped by a saudi backed sunni group but it doesn't appear to happen
2008-05-15 23:16 < gwern> Cyrius: if only we charged like other public utilities...
2008-05-15 23:16 < quanticle> geniice: Right, because the Saudis don't have any real military to speak of. They've got mercenaries, but not a military.
2008-05-15 23:17 < gwern> shias are hard-core, man. they're oppressed and have a huge tradition of martyrdom and fighting other muslims
2008-05-15 23:17 < geniice> they have a large number of unemployed young men and the money to buy anything. They should be a major regional power
2008-05-15 23:17 < geniice> gwern sunni have a tradition of fighting everyone
2008-05-15 23:18 < Demi> who doesn't have a history of fighting everyone?
2008-05-15 23:18 < Rinn> Public utility as in a toilet?
2008-05-15 23:18 < gwern> geniice: who's gonna lead them?
2008-05-15 23:18 < gwern> their clerics? the saudi royal family?
2008-05-15 23:19 < quanticle> geniice: The Sunnis fall into the same trap as the Japanese. They're too busy planning their own glorious death to plan out a glorious death for the enemy.
2008-05-15 23:19 < quanticle> Or rather, that statement should have gone to gwern.
2008-05-15 23:19 < geniice> gwern royal families have historical president and they could always do a jordan with regards to militry leadership
2008-05-15 23:19 < gwern> they're gonna look askance at turning leadership over to any of the bedouins who, I dunno, still remember how to lead and not just wallow in their own crapulence
2008-05-15 23:20 < quanticle> geniice: The Saudi royal family is like the Arab version of the Clampett clan. They're just a bunch of Bedouins who got lucky.
2008-05-15 23:20 < gwern> the Saudis are never going to re-enact _Dune_ because the royals know perfectly well they're the padishah emperor in this scenario
2008-05-15 23:21 < gwern> if - if that makes sense to you?
2008-05-15 23:21 < quanticle> gwern: Heh. We all know who the Padisha emperor is, but who are the Fremen? The Shia?
2008-05-15 23:21 < Demi> Which is the Quidditch Caddyshack?
2008-05-15 23:21 < Ceiling_Cat> early reviews of indiana jones say it's dreadful
2008-05-15 23:21 < Ceiling_Cat> oh noes
2008-05-15 23:21 < Ceiling_Cat> a bomb 19 years in the making
2008-05-15 23:21 < Demi> "an early review"
2008-05-15 23:22 < quanticle> We call the number of black nodes on any path from, but not including, a node x down to a leaf the black-height of the node, denoted bh(x).
2008-05-15 23:22 < quanticle> Oh... whoops.
2008-05-15 23:22 < gwern> quanticle: the shia have the best historical claim, as they didn't do too hot under the sunnis/saddam hussein
2008-05-15 23:22 < gwern> Ceiling_Cat: I heard that. makes me said :(
2008-05-15 23:23 < gwern> *sad
2008-05-15 23:23 < quanticle> gwern: The Kurds could be the Fremen too. Hard fighters, but disunited as hell.
2008-05-15 23:23 < quanticle> gwern: All the Kurds need is a Paul Atreides to unite them and they'd be unstoppable.
2008-05-15 23:23 * Mahlzahn wonders where quanticle gets his scoop
2008-05-15 23:23 < Demi> wait, so the turks are the sardaukar?
2008-05-15 23:24 < quanticle> Demi: Either that, or they're House Harkonnen soldiers.
2008-05-15 23:24 < Mahlzahn> quanticle: the kurds are already darn near unstoppable on wp.
2008-05-15 23:24 < _sj_> The359, I thought she went on to be fairly good at vaulting
2008-05-15 23:24 < quanticle> Mahlzahn: Heh. I'm talking about real life, silly.
2008-05-15 23:24 < gwern> quanticle: yeah, they'd make sense too - you postulate that the sunni and shia are the people of the graben, and the kurds in the autonomous no-fly zones are the fremen in the sietches
2008-05-15 23:24 < quanticle> gwern: Right.
2008-05-15 23:24 < Mahlzahn> every other article seems to originate with kurds, the kurdish language, or something or the other kurdish
2008-05-15 23:24 < gwern> Demi: no, the sardaukar would be the new jersyans in the US military
2008-05-15 23:25 * gwern bah dum shs
2008-05-15 23:25 < geniice> all I ever needed to know about middle east conflict I learned from dune? hmm
2008-05-15 23:25 < quanticle> gwern: Now that makes sense. The Sardukar were the premier fighting force in the galaxy, but they got soft after facing years of no challenge.
2008-05-15 23:25 < _sj_> survival on our highway... was so hard...
2008-05-15 23:26 < quanticle> gwern: Either that, or the Sardukar would be the IDF.
2008-05-15 23:26 < geniice> IDF are still pretty good
2008-05-15 23:27 < quanticle> geniice: Yeah, so were the Sardukar, but they still got their asses kicked by <s>Hezbollah</s> Fremen.
2008-05-15 23:27 < gwern> quanticle: yup. unfortunately, finding an analogue for the atreides is harder... who did the US send into Iraq ahead of itself?
2008-05-15 23:27 < gwern> the iraqi national congress failed, etc
2008-05-15 23:27 < quanticle> gwern: No one that was any good, and this is where the analogy falls apart.
2008-05-15 23:27 < geniice> gwern various rebels in early 90s
2008-05-15 23:28 < gwern> it's almost too bad saddam got rid of his WMDs - means we can't work in any family atomics
2008-05-15 23:28 < quanticle> gwern: The only close analogy I can make to a Lisan al Gaib is Petraeus, and that's a HUGE stretch.
2008-05-15 23:28 < Alkivar> oh he didnt get rid of them
2008-05-15 23:28 < gwern> geniice: oh, you're thinking of the kurdish insurrection?
2008-05-15 23:28 < Alkivar> they're still there buried in an underground bunker somewhere no doubt
2008-05-15 23:29 < geniice> gwern more the shia one
2008-05-15 23:29 < quanticle> Alkivar: Either that, or the generals pocketed the money Saddam was giving them to work on WMD.
2008-05-15 23:29 < geniice> Alkivar doubftful the chemicals he were useing were fairly stable but not that stable
2008-05-15 23:30 < geniice> quanticle it probably cost them more to dispose of them
2008-05-15 23:30 < quanticle> geniice: Heh. The disposal was handled by the UN teams, no?
2008-05-15 23:30 < geniice> they never found anything
2008-05-15 23:30 < gwern> actually, now that I think about it, how did Paul get one of the family atomics for the finale of Dune? I'm a Dune fan, but I just don't see it
2008-05-15 23:30 < quanticle> geniice: I'm talking about the UN teams after the Gulf War.
2008-05-15 23:31 < Moro55> http://bp1.blogger.com/_l19s1EoCO-c/SBIHO-d6luI/AAAAAAAAAkM/3y-oP8pXQYM/s1600-h/lomasculero.JPG
2008-05-15 23:31 * FastLizard4 has a commited identity now
2008-05-15 23:31 < gwern> the family atomics are supposed to be space-based, iirc, so how did paul down on dune with the spacing guild against him get one?
2008-05-15 23:32 * Krimpet had a committed identity before it was cool. :)
2008-05-15 23:32 < quanticle> gwern: I never made it to the end of the Dune series. I stopped at the end of Dune Messiah.
2008-05-15 23:33 < gwern> quanticle: there are worse places to stop
2008-05-15 23:34 < gwern> strangely, I think DM is the best one
2008-05-15 23:34 < Ceiling_Cat> A NASA employee just sent us [[Image:NACA's Special Committee on Space Technology.jpg]]
2008-05-15 23:34 < gwern> but I know I'm strange that way
2008-05-15 23:34 < Ceiling_Cat> apparently we had a low-res web version
2008-05-15 23:34 < geniice> okey danny is now compareing the foundation to the goverment in 1984
2008-05-15 23:34 < Ceiling_Cat> and she sent us a nice high res version of the same iamge
2008-05-15 23:34 < Ceiling_Cat> image*
2008-05-15 23:34 < quanticle> gwern: That was the one that ended with Paul going blind and walking off into the desert.
2008-05-15 23:34 < gwern> Krimpet: hah, I had a comitted identity before we finished discussing what a comitted identity was!
2008-05-15 23:34 < gwern> 'A federal indictment accuses Lori Drew, 49, of O'Fallon, Missouri, of using the social networking Web site MySpace.com to pose as a 16-year-old boy and feign romantic interest in the girl.'
2008-05-15 23:34 < geniice> while I've had run ins with COMCOM they are not exactly mintruth
2008-05-15 23:34 < gwern> quanticle: yes
2008-05-15 23:35 < geniice> Ceiling_Cat wikipedia is not a nasa publishing service
2008-05-15 23:35 < gwern> Ceiling_Cat: OMG! they all have a hideious skin condition
2008-05-15 23:35 < gwern> why are they so deathly pale?
2008-05-15 23:36 < gwern> 'Drew faces up to 20 years in prison on charges of conspiracy and accessing protected computers to obtain information to inflict emotional distress.'
2008-05-15 23:36 < Ceiling_Cat> geniice - actually, we already had the image used in an article\
2008-05-15 23:36 < Ceiling_Cat> it's just we had a crappy one
2008-05-15 23:36 < quanticle> ""KBRT’s traffic helicopter, Beirut’s only traffic reporter with look-down-shoot-down capability, brings you this update: avoid the Shia-town expressway, which is jammed with weekend Hezbollah visitors evacuating the capital…."
2008-05-15 23:36 < Ceiling_Cat> the NASA employee sent us the same image in much higher res
2008-05-15 23:36 < Ceiling_Cat> this is a Very Good Thing (TM)
2008-05-15 23:36 < gwern> 'Prosecutors allege that Drew and the others violated MySpace's terms of service by using false information to create the account so they could "harass, abuse or harm" Meier, according to the indictment.' <-- wow, I didn't realize breaking terms of service was a *criminal* offense -_-
2008-05-15 23:36 < gwern> let's use this as precedent and go after vandals!
2008-05-15 23:36 * Ceiling_Cat slaps a {{Very Good Thing}} template on Krimpet
2008-05-15 23:37 < gwern> geniice: why shouldn't we be? if it's free media, it's appropriate for commons
2008-05-15 23:37 < gwern> ' "She was looking for me to help calm herself down like I always did and be there for her. And I was upset because I didn't like the language she was using, and I was angry she didn't sign off when I told her to," Tina Meier told CNN. Video Watch Tina Meier's reaction to the charges »
2008-05-15 23:37 < gwern> "She said to me, 'You're supposed to be my mom, you're supposed to be on my side,' and then took off running upstairs," Tina Meier said.'
2008-05-15 23:37 < gwern> ' "It's as if my daughter killed herself with a gun," Meier's father, Ron, told CNN. "And it's as if they loaded the gun for her."'
2008-05-15 23:37 < gwern> if by they, you mean your wife...
2008-05-15 23:38 * quanticle would love to have an assault chopper for the news. FLIR for analyzing traffic flows. Hellfires for clearing (or creating) jams as necessary. 20mm cannon for taking out pedestrians that talk back...
2008-05-15 23:44 < bumm13> interesting link about Blackwater and Hurricane Katrina - http://ln-s.net/1s6+ (Internet Archive link)
2008-05-15 23:46 < quanticle> Oh. Geniice left.
2008-05-15 23:46 < quanticle> I was going to ask him if was going to order the War Nerd book.
2008-05-15 23:48 * gwern will ILL it if it's any good
2008-05-15 23:50 < quanticle> Yeah. Me too. Supposedly, its shipping now.
2008-05-15 23:53 < gwern> I wonder whether Gnash can handle youtube and pandora yet?
2008-05-15 23:54 < Krimpet> gwern: Gnash is crap, I just tried it a few days ago
2008-05-15 23:54 < quanticle> gwern: I'm reading the customer reviews of the book right now, and, apparently, its just a bunch of his essays in hard-copy format.
2008-05-15 23:54 < Krimpet> hardy heron introduced pulseaudio, which screwed up flash completely, so I tried Gnash and swfdec, both were awful
2008-05-15 23:55 < quanticle> Krimpet: Heh. PulseAudio is the entire reason I'm skipping the Fedora 8 release and am moving straight from Fedora 7 to Fedora 9.
2008-05-15 23:55 < Krimpet> quanticle: actually, someone posted a thread on the Ubuntu forums a couple days ago that fixed all my problems
2008-05-15 23:56 < quanticle> "You can send your son to college and burn $150K, or you can spend less than $20 and give him all the education he needs about world history and human nature. No joke." <-- Review of the War Nerd book.
2008-05-15 23:56 < mastertop> hey guys
2008-05-15 23:56 < quanticle> Krimpet: It was fixed later on in F8, but, by that point, F9 was close enough that I chose to wait.
2008-05-15 23:57 < mastertop> Is it better to write "I believe that he will win it" or "I believe he will win it"
2008-05-15 23:57 < Krimpet> hmm, good question
2008-05-15 23:57 < bumm13> the second line
2008-05-15 23:57 < quanticle> mastertop: Are you using British English or American English?
2008-05-15 23:57 < gwern> quanticle: I understood as much; nobody mentions any additional content?
2008-05-15 23:57 < bumm13> (IMO)
2008-05-15 23:57 < Vystrix_Nexoth> either one will work, I think.
2008-05-15 23:57 < mastertop> well, american
2008-05-15 23:57 < quanticle> gwern: Nope.
2008-05-15 23:57 < quanticle> mastertop: The the second version is more appropriate.
2008-05-15 23:58 < gwern> Krimpet: that makes me so sad to hear! but I have to try anyway, I'm suddenly sick of flash being on my computer
2008-05-15 23:58 < gwern> mastertop: I believe he will win?
2008-05-15 23:58 < mastertop> are there any situations where I should write "I believe that"
2008-05-15 23:58 < Krimpet> the thread also told how to set up a system-wide equalizer with pulse, which was a nice bonus
2008-05-15 23:58 < mastertop> or "I think that.
2008-05-15 23:58 < mastertop> gwern : what?
2008-05-15 23:59 < Krimpet> my laptop speakers actually pump out some decent volume, now.
2008-05-15 23:59 < quanticle> mastertop: "I think that this conversation is too grammarian for my taste."
2008-05-15 23:59 < Vystrix_Nexoth> mastertop: I think you can leave the "that" out in most, if not all, of those cases.
2008-05-15 23:59 < Vystrix_Nexoth> or you can include it. it'll work either way. just a question of readability and such.
2008-05-15 23:59 < mastertop> quanticle : Why wouldn't I think this conversation is too grammarian for my taste?
2008-05-15 23:59 < gwern> mastertop: when you're listing stuff: 'I believe that GWB is an honest man; that he is doing the best he can; that he didn't authorise torture...'
2008-05-15 23:59 < mastertop> (work)
2008-05-16 00:00 < Vystrix_Nexoth> gwern: ah, good point
2008-05-16 00:00 < quanticle> mastertop: It was an example of a sentence in which you'd use "that".
2008-05-16 00:00 < mastertop> quanticle, why should I use "that"
2008-05-16 00:00 < gwern> (for example)
2008-05-16 00:00 < gwern> '. I remembered there’s a long history of people in high-pressure jobs using stimulants when their brains lost their sponginess: Anthony Eden was taking Benzedrine all through the Suez Crisis, and Jean-Paul Sartre wrote several of his novels while pumped on mescaline. Admittedly, these precedents aren’t encouraging: Eden had a break-down, and Sartre’s brain was so cooked that for the rest of his life, he had the recurring fear that he was being foll
2008-05-16 00:01 < quanticle> mastertop: To be fair, I don't properly know. I think the sentence would work just fine without it.
2008-05-16 00:02 < quanticle> gwern: Yeah. Taking stimulants is like juicing yourself with pure oxygen. Its a huge boost in the short term, but the long term consequences can be quite damaging.
2008-05-16 00:04 < gwern> quanticle: this article is actually on provigil/modafinil, which is interesting for the apparent lack of side-effects
2008-05-16 00:04 < gwern> on the other hand, the one time I ordered some modafinil, I was quite disapointed. I figure I was either gypped, or the reports are heavily contaminated by placebo and other confounding effects
2008-05-16 00:14 < gwern> although I suppose I should mention what I actually ordered was adrafinil
2008-05-16 00:14 < gwern> a modafinil precursor
2008-05-16 00:14 * gwern wimped out because that stuff is fricking expensive!
2008-05-16 00:15 < DrSkullthumper> Anybody know what chii is?
2008-05-16 00:16 < gwern> sounds vaguely familiar from anime
2008-05-16 00:16 < gwern> a few characters; change it to 'chi' and it could be almost anything
2008-05-16 00:16 < DrSkullthumper> I mean the thing on the channel
2008-05-16 00:16 < quanticle> gwern: You should read this thread: http://www.amazon.com/tag/nonfiction/forum/ref=cm_cd_dp_rt_tft_tp?%5Fencoding=UTF8&cdForum=Fx2OYDNY5URZTVV&cdThread=Tx1VF4O2VV8SU5B
2008-05-16 00:16 < DrSkullthumper> The freenode bot thing
2008-05-16 00:18 < quanticle> "It is important to point out that the bombings in England and Spain and Indonesia proved that terrorism from radical Islamists can originate ANYWHERE. England, Spain, and Indonesia are not unstable countries like Afghanistan and Iraq, and yet they still managed to harbor homegrown terrorists."
2008-05-16 00:20 < gwern> DrSkullthumper: oh. that's almost certainly a Chobits reference
2008-05-16 00:20 < gwern> only anime I can think of with a Chii and a Hideki character
2008-05-16 00:21 * quanticle is up to episode 120 in Bleach.
2008-05-16 00:22 < DrSkullthumper> gwern: I mean, what does chii do?
2008-05-16 00:22 < gwern> 'Iraq has always had three distinct cultures, three ethnic groups. Thousands of years ago, these three groups were known as the Akkadians, the Babylonians, and the Sumerians. Today, they are known as the Kurds, the Sunnis, and the Shiites.' <-- what stunning historical simplification
2008-05-16 00:22 < Sky2042_afk> gwern: lol.
2008-05-16 00:22 < gwern> DrSkullthumper: the bot itzel,f or the character?
2008-05-16 00:23 < quanticle> gwern: Yeah. That was a bit jarring, but if you keep reading, you see that he doesn't base any of his other arguments on it.
2008-05-16 00:23 < gwern> the character acts all innocent and child-like while disturbingly treading over the lines between human and robot
2008-05-16 00:23 < gwern> no idea what the bot does
2008-05-16 00:23 < Ceiling_Cat> John Ehrlichman: "How do you know that, Mr. Chairman?"
2008-05-16 00:23 < Ceiling_Cat> Sam Ervin: Because I can understand the English language. It's my mother's tongue.
2008-05-16 00:23 * Ceiling_Cat sighs
2008-05-16 00:23 < Ceiling_Cat> we need someone like him
2008-05-16 00:24 < Ceiling_Cat> now more than ever
2008-05-16 00:24 < DrSkullthumper> gwern: The bot itself.
2008-05-16 00:24 < Ceiling_Cat> god bless his racist, nixon-downfall-causing soul
2008-05-16 00:24 * FastLizard4 lulz after watching Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
2008-05-16 00:24 < Ceiling_Cat> (god bless him for the latter half, at any rate)
2008-05-16 00:24 < FastLizard4> ``Mein Fuhrer -- I mean, Mr, President...''
2008-05-16 00:24 < DrSkullthumper> gwern: Nobody seems to know...
2008-05-16 00:25 < gwern> quanticle: I have a rule online that if a writer makes a hideious glaring error early on, and they're anonymous/pseudonymous, I stop reading. I don't care about reaching the right conclusion in a wrong way
2008-05-16 00:26 < quanticle> gwern: Ah. Ok.
2008-05-16 00:26 < bumm13> heh, this ebay negative feedback comment is hilarious
2008-05-16 00:26 < bumm13> (for an SATA/IDE adapter thingy)
2008-05-16 00:26 < bumm13> "ordered 2 but received 1, furtherworse, the received 1 is out of order, a crab"
2008-05-16 00:27 < quanticle> bumm13: http://xkcd.com/325/
2008-05-16 00:27 < bumm13> furtherworse???
2008-05-16 00:27 < bumm13> :#
2008-05-16 00:27 * bumm13 clickies linky
2008-05-16 00:27 * quanticle likes "furtherworse"
2008-05-16 00:27 < gwern> DrSkullthumper: go ask the freenode devs. they gave it a hostmask, so presumably one of them knows the user/rationale
2008-05-16 00:27 * Ceiling_Cat huggles lolcat
2008-05-16 00:27 * lolcat is huggled
2008-05-16 00:27 < bumm13> heh, yeah, I've seen that one before
2008-05-16 00:28 < quanticle> I think that furtherworse should exist as a word.
2008-05-16 00:28 < Ceiling_Cat> quanticle - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9W5u11V7LM
2008-05-16 00:28 < Ceiling_Cat> A toilet-trained bobcat
2008-05-16 00:28 < Ceiling_Cat> (creepy, I know)
2008-05-16 00:28 < bumm13> :#
2008-05-16 00:28 < The359> WP down?
2008-05-16 00:28 < bumm13> bobcats aren't exactly......kitty cats :x
2008-05-16 00:28 * The359 can't get any pages to load
2008-05-16 00:28 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - all kitties are cute and huggly
2008-05-16 00:28 * bumm13 actually knows someone who used to own a bobcat
2008-05-16 00:29 < gwern> received crab, not bobcat. would not orer again
2008-05-16 00:29 < The359> nevermind, now it works
2008-05-16 00:29 * Ceiling_Cat notes bumm13's use of the past tense
2008-05-16 00:29 < quanticle> Rioting, massacres, and ethnic cleansing broke out in the subsequent Partition, resulting in an estimated 20 million people migrating to the other country. Estimates of total deaths during the Partition period vary, but are thought to be around 500,000.
2008-05-16 00:29 < quanticle> So what's happening in Iraq is peanuts by comparison.
2008-05-16 00:29 < bumm13> it was in a fenced-off enclosure in the person's house
2008-05-16 00:29 < Ceiling_Cat> MAOR KATZ!
2008-05-16 00:29 < bumm13> it hissed and clawed at my younger sister (then a baby) :-p
2008-05-16 00:29 < bumm13> apparently it only liked its owner and nobody else
2008-05-16 00:29 < bumm13> (it was declawed, defanged, neutered, etc.)
2008-05-16 00:30 < bumm13> Ceiling_Cat: it eventually ended up in an outdoor enclosure at the person's parents house (rural area)
2008-05-16 00:30 < gwern> 'further worse' seems to be in usage
2008-05-16 00:30 < Ceiling_Cat> awww... kitty cats shouldn't be caged up :(
2008-05-16 00:31 < quanticle> gwern: I want it to be one word, like furthermore.
2008-05-16 00:31 < bumm13> one day, some coyotes apparently pulled it partially through the fencing and tore it up/killed it
2008-05-16 00:31 * Ceiling_Cat lets bumm13's neighbor's parent's bobcat go
2008-05-16 00:31 < Ceiling_Cat> awwwwwww :(
2008-05-16 00:31 < bumm13> yeah, tragic
2008-05-16 00:31 < quanticle> bumm13: Such is the savagery of nature.
2008-05-16 00:31 < bumm13> bobcats are wild animals
2008-05-16 00:31 < bumm13> and shouldn't be made into "pets"
2008-05-16 00:31 < quanticle> bumm13: The funny thing is that, if the bobcat had been free, it could have taken at least one of the coyotes down with it.
2008-05-16 00:32 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - any animal can be domesticated
2008-05-16 00:32 < bumm13> yeah, or at least scared them a bit
2008-05-16 00:32 < Ceiling_Cat> see [[Tame Silver Fox]]
2008-05-16 00:32 < bumm13> it probably had wild parents
2008-05-16 00:32 < Ceiling_Cat> probably one of the few really useful bits of biological research produced by the soviet union
2008-05-16 00:32 < bumm13> it often takes a generation or two to get the wild tendencies down a bit
2008-05-16 00:32 < Ceiling_Cat> in spite of Lysenkoism
2008-05-16 00:33 < gwern> quanticle: so start using it
2008-05-16 00:33 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - actually, it takes more like 20
2008-05-16 00:33 < bumm13> oh wow
2008-05-16 00:33 < gwern> wait, how could they pull it partially through the fencing?
2008-05-16 00:33 < Ceiling_Cat> with very high selection pressure
2008-05-16 00:33 < gwern> do they get inside completely?
2008-05-16 00:33 < bumm13> I knew it took time ;)
2008-05-16 00:33 < Ceiling_Cat> the less the selection pressure, the more time it takes
2008-05-16 00:33 < bumm13> some people also own "pixie bobs" (bobcat/domestic cat hybrids)
2008-05-16 00:33 < quanticle> gwern: I will. And, furtherworse for the strict grammarians, I'll make sure it spreads.
2008-05-16 00:33 < bumm13> which aren't much good as pets, either
2008-05-16 00:34 < Ceiling_Cat> hrm
2008-05-16 00:34 * Ceiling_Cat thinks [[selection pressure]] would make a neat FA
2008-05-16 00:34 < bumm13> and, of course, wolf-dog hybrids
2008-05-16 00:34 < bumm13> which is worse than a regular wolf in many ways
2008-05-16 00:34 < bumm13> since domestic dogs don't fear humans
2008-05-16 00:34 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - what about man-wolf hybrids?
2008-05-16 00:34 < bumm13> :D
2008-05-16 00:35 < Ceiling_Cat> they're intelligent *AND* they like hte taste of human flesh
2008-05-16 00:35 < Enok|Walker> If I had a time machine I would totally get a [[Dire wolf]] as a pet
2008-05-16 00:35 * Ceiling_Cat wants a [[thylacine]]
2008-05-16 00:35 < bumm13> a saw a documentary on TV once about a guy in Mexico who had uncontrolled hair growth
2008-05-16 00:35 < bumm13> (including all over his face and head)
2008-05-16 00:36 < DannyLilithborne> is wikipedia only taking forever for me? :(
2008-05-16 00:36 < bumm13> it grew extremely fast
2008-05-16 00:36 * quanticle off for bed
2008-05-16 00:36 < bumm13> and made it hard for him to find work
2008-05-16 00:37 < bumm13> [[Hypertrichosis]]
2008-05-16 00:37 < The359> it's slow for me too, Danny_B
2008-05-16 00:37 < The359> erm
2008-05-16 00:37 < The359> DannyLilithborne
2008-05-16 00:38 < DannyLilithborne> ^.^
2008-05-16 00:39 * Ceiling_Cat is about to amble off to read maor [[War of Honor]]
2008-05-16 00:39 < Ceiling_Cat> I'm ~5000 pages into this series
2008-05-16 00:39 < Ceiling_Cat> must finish
2008-05-16 00:39 < bumm13> yikes
2008-05-16 00:40 < Ceiling_Cat> there's 11 books in the main sequences
2008-05-16 00:40 < bumm13> once you finish that, you can start on War and Peace ;)
2008-05-16 00:40 < Ceiling_Cat> plus anotoher 9 or 10 side-books I haven't touched
2008-05-16 00:40 < Olipro> in Soviet Russia, you watch Ceiling_Cat masturbate
2008-05-16 00:40 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - it's a very, very good series
2008-05-16 00:40 < bumm13> I'm sure it is
2008-05-16 00:40 < Ceiling_Cat> see [[Honorverse]]
2008-05-16 00:40 < Ceiling_Cat> think of it like harry potter, only 3x longer :P
2008-05-16 00:41 < Ceiling_Cat> (side question: just how many pages is the whole HP series?)
2008-05-16 00:41 < Ceiling_Cat> http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070925055516AAf2q8j
2008-05-16 00:41 < Ceiling_Cat> 3407
2008-05-16 00:41 < Ceiling_Cat> ok, so only 50% longer (not counting side books)
2008-05-16 00:42 < kmccoy> I met Yo Yo Ma in the elevator on the way to his concert. :)
2008-05-16 00:42 < tawker2> Ceiling_Cat: what are you up to these days
2008-05-16 00:42 < Sky2042> kmccoy: amaaaaazing.
2008-05-16 00:42 < Sky2042> :P
2008-05-16 00:42 * BoL is going to sleep now, good night!
2008-05-16 00:43 < tawker2> Ceiling_Cat: we got James back for the podcast
2008-05-16 00:43 < tawker2> we have a Brit again!
2008-05-16 00:43 < tawker2> we will be orderly
2008-05-16 00:43 < kmccoy> And then, of course, the concert was fantastic.
2008-05-16 00:43 < bumm13> James, the tech guy?
2008-05-16 00:43 < Ceiling_Cat> hi tawker2
2008-05-16 00:43 < bumm13> kmccoy: w00t
2008-05-16 00:43 < Ceiling_Cat> James F?
2008-05-16 00:43 < gwern> my only problem with the honorverse is that it's like Ayn Rand's stuff but better
2008-05-16 00:44 < Ceiling_Cat> gwern - huh? How?
2008-05-16 00:45 < bumm13> (hmm, one particular NIV type Bible has 1,334 pages)
2008-05-16 00:45 < Ceiling_Cat> [[List of longest novels]]
2008-05-16 00:45 < gwern> Ceiling_Cat: the constant pushing of the author's ethics and politics?
2008-05-16 00:45 < gwern> you don't see it?
2008-05-16 00:45 < Ceiling_Cat> Illustrated fantasy novel manuscript typed single-spaced with 15,145 pages in 10 volumes.
2008-05-16 00:45 < Ceiling_Cat> gwern - well I didn't read Rand so I have no basis for comparison
2008-05-16 00:46 < Ceiling_Cat> obviously in the latter books the author makes the conservatives and liberals of the Manticore system seem like asshats
2008-05-16 00:46 < bumm13> haha, L. Ron Hubbard
2008-05-16 00:46 < Ceiling_Cat> and the crown royalists are the sympathetic ones
2008-05-16 00:46 < bumm13> see folks, quality over quantity is the best way ;)
2008-05-16 00:46 < Ceiling_Cat> then again, I don't get myself worked up over the income tax (which the fictional manticorians do) or over genetic slavery
2008-05-16 00:47 < Ceiling_Cat> So I can safely say that the book's political parties are... umm... irrelavant?
2008-05-16 00:47 < Ceiling_Cat> (unless you see one of the characters as a bad stand-in for GWB)
2008-05-16 00:48 < Ceiling_Cat> HA!
2008-05-16 00:48 < Ceiling_Cat> [[W. (2008 film)]] is going to be released 2 weeks before the election
2008-05-16 00:48 < Ceiling_Cat> teeheee
2008-05-16 00:49 < Ceiling_Cat> (Rob Cordry as Ari Fleisher! I love it!)
2008-05-16 00:49 * bumm13 prefers Max Fleischer
2008-05-16 00:49 < Ceiling_Cat> The film's producers are reportedly planning to run TV spots for the film opposite John McCain's ads this fall.[7]
2008-05-16 00:50 < tawker2> is it a pro Obama film?
2008-05-16 00:50 < tawker2> btw, Time's called it for Obama
2008-05-16 00:50 < bumm13> probama?
2008-05-16 00:50 < tawker2> already
2008-05-16 00:50 < tawker2> yeah
2008-05-16 00:50 < tawker2> Obama for President
2008-05-16 00:50 < Ceiling_Cat> I was asked to handicap the race today
2008-05-16 00:50 < tawker2> cuz she has a crush on Obama
2008-05-16 00:51 < Ceiling_Cat> setting aside my own prejudices, I'd say Obama has 75% chance of winning, and McCain 25%
2008-05-16 00:52 < Ceiling_Cat> the only reason I'm giving McCain 25% is the race factor, which is the big unknown
2008-05-16 00:52 < bumm13> I think it'll be another mostly-party line deal
2008-05-16 00:52 < bumm13> with swing voters/states being important yet again
2008-05-16 00:52 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - I think it's important to recognize that conservatives are demoralized
2008-05-16 00:53 < Ceiling_Cat> and that their turnout will be low
2008-05-16 00:53 < Ceiling_Cat> whereas Obama energizes blacks and youngins
2008-05-16 00:53 < bumm13> I doubt they'll be *that* demoralized
2008-05-16 00:53 < Ceiling_Cat> I thikn Obama could easily pick off Virginia and Loisiana
2008-05-16 00:53 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - they don't have to vote for Obama... they just have to stay home
2008-05-16 00:53 < bumm13> roffle
2008-05-16 00:53 < Ceiling_Cat> and not all of them... just 10%. 5%, even
2008-05-16 00:54 < gwern> obama for president?
2008-05-16 00:54 < gwern> no way
2008-05-16 00:54 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - Virginia is the purplest state in the union
2008-05-16 00:54 < bumm13> of course, racist old people won't be motivated at all to vote against Obama ;p
2008-05-16 00:54 < Ceiling_Cat> they have a democratic governor and two democratic senators now
2008-05-16 00:54 < Warpath> O_O
2008-05-16 00:54 < gwern> 75 percent is absurdly optimistic
2008-05-16 00:54 < Ceiling_Cat> and Loisiana has a lot of blacks and a lot of college students relative to its population
2008-05-16 00:54 < gwern> Ceiling_Cat: how do you justify havin an opinion something like 25 percent differnt from the prediction markets?
2008-05-16 00:55 < Ceiling_Cat> I think it's tailor made for Obama
2008-05-16 00:55 < bumm13> *Louisiana ;)
2008-05-16 00:55 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern - I don't understand your question
2008-05-16 00:55 < gwern> not going to happen. between the weatherman, muslim, and wright smears, conservatives are convinced obama is a darkie crypto-islamocommunist, who must be stopped before he loses the war against terror
2008-05-16 00:55 < TheLetterE-TS> quit
2008-05-16 00:55 < bumm13> I wonder which way New Mexico will go? (just out of sheer curiosity)
2008-05-16 00:56 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - he'll take it
2008-05-16 00:56 < bumm13> he?
2008-05-16 00:56 < Ceiling_Cat> Obama
2008-05-16 00:56 < bumm13> good chance
2008-05-16 00:56 < bumm13> most Western and Plains states will be red
2008-05-16 00:56 < Ceiling_Cat> Kerry took NM against Bush, and I don't see Obama/McCain benefitting the republlicans there
2008-05-16 00:56 < bumm13> with CA, WA, OR voting for Obama
2008-05-16 00:56 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - not if he picks Kathleen Sibelius as his VP :)
2008-05-16 00:56 < bumm13> who is that?
2008-05-16 00:57 < Ceiling_Cat> Democratic gov of Kansas
2008-05-16 00:57 < bumm13> meh
2008-05-16 00:57 < gwern> Ceiling_Cat: the prediction markets give mccain approximately a 42 percent chance of winning. given that the markets have a much better track record than the average commentator, I'm wondering how you justify having such a very different assessment
2008-05-16 00:57 < gwern> and if you believe your assessment superior to the markets, why not making money of your superior analysis?
2008-05-16 00:57 < gwern> *off
2008-05-16 00:57 < Ceiling_Cat> she'd bring women, she'd give the all those middle aged white clinton supporters someone to latch onto, and she'd bring kansas
2008-05-16 00:57 < bumm13> maybe, maybe not
2008-05-16 00:58 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern - it's difficult to handicap a race like this one with such huge unknown factors
2008-05-16 00:58 < bumm13> but that does raise another interesting question
2008-05-16 00:58 < Ceiling_Cat> the race factor especially
2008-05-16 00:58 < bumm13> who might McCain pick for VP candidate?
2008-05-16 00:58 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - the republican algorithm for choosing VP candidates goes something like this:
2008-05-16 00:58 < bumm13> (hopefully someone younger ;p )
2008-05-16 00:59 < FastLizard4> Cheyney :P
2008-05-16 00:59 < bumm13> die!
2008-05-16 00:59 < Ceiling_Cat> find the oldest, whitest, richest guy you can
2008-05-16 00:59 < Ceiling_Cat> make him your VP :)
2008-05-16 00:59 < bumm13> H.W. was younger than Reagan ;)
2008-05-16 00:59 < gwern> Ceiling_Cat: you seem to have no problem doing it
2008-05-16 00:59 < bumm13> (when Reagan was 69)
2008-05-16 00:59 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern - I see no way McCain can win this election *except* for race
2008-05-16 01:00 < Ceiling_Cat> If Obama was white, I'd give McCain 5%
2008-05-16 01:00 * bumm13 laughs at the mere thought of ol' Dan Quayle
2008-05-16 01:01 < Ceiling_Cat> (if that...)
2008-05-16 01:02 < gwern> Ceiling_Cat: you still didn't answer my question: given that the markets outperform the average guesser, what makes you think your guess is above-average? if you have no reason to believe your guess is above-average, why not just use the markets' assessment?
2008-05-16 01:02 * FastLizard4 is now going to bed, good night!
2008-05-16 01:02 < bumm13> nite
2008-05-16 01:03 < FastLizard4> 'night :)
2008-05-16 01:03 * bumm13 thinks....
2008-05-16 01:03 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern - because 42% for McCain is absurdly high given the fact that every indicator shows him losing this election
2008-05-16 01:03 < bumm13> this will be the sixth President serving during my lifetime
2008-05-16 01:04 < gwern> what indicators are those?
2008-05-16 01:04 < bumm13> Carter was in his last year when I was a mere infant :-)
2008-05-16 01:05 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern - the 3 special elections in a row that the republicans have lost, for one
2008-05-16 01:05 < Ceiling_Cat> the 80% of people who think we're on the wrong track (the highest ever measured by gallup)
2008-05-16 01:05 < gwern> I'd say mccain is in a good position to win: he's a white male rich hawk, he's milked the POW thing more effectively than Guiliani 9/11, and he's even more teflon than obama
2008-05-16 01:05 < Ceiling_Cat> the fact that Obama has outraised McCain in money, which is unheard of for a democrat to do to a republican in a presidential race
2008-05-16 01:06 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern - he *used* to be teflon
2008-05-16 01:06 < bumm13> I wonder how much Oprah donated?
2008-05-16 01:06 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - she cannot donate more than $2000 for the primary and $2000 for the main election, I believe
2008-05-16 01:06 < Ceiling_Cat> under federal election finiancing laws
2008-05-16 01:06 < gwern> not to mention, he's staked out better positions than bush on a few issues; he can simulatenously present himself as bush's war on terror sucessor, but also appear to moderates by stuff like his climate change
2008-05-16 01:06 < bumm13> Ceiling_Cat: yeah, considering that McCain's wife is loaded with moolah
2008-05-16 01:06 < bumm13> (but yeah, one person)
2008-05-16 01:07 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern - let's be realistic, only 2 or *maybe* 3 issues are going to matter in this election
2008-05-16 01:07 < Ceiling_Cat> Iraq
2008-05-16 01:07 < Ceiling_Cat> The Economy
2008-05-16 01:07 < Ceiling_Cat> and *maybe* (universal) healthcare
2008-05-16 01:07 < Ceiling_Cat> And Obama beats McCain handily on all 3
2008-05-16 01:08 < gwern> Ceiling_Cat: dude. the american electorate *re-elected* GWB. and gave him both electoral and popular victories. if the electorate isn't willing to blame the very guy who is most to blame, why the heck are you thinking they're going to turn on mccain
2008-05-16 01:08 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern - because he has the (R) next to his name
2008-05-16 01:08 < Ceiling_Cat> and in this political climate that's poison
2008-05-16 01:08 < gwern> all of those were issues in 2004
2008-05-16 01:09 < Ceiling_Cat> gwern - take all of the discontent that was present in 2004
2008-05-16 01:09 < gwern> sometimes. the polls oscillate, iirc
2008-05-16 01:09 < Ceiling_Cat> and add katrina, the morgate meltdown, $4/gallon oil
2008-05-16 01:09 < Ceiling_Cat> morgage*
2008-05-16 01:09 < bumm13> red is red ;)
2008-05-16 01:09 < Ceiling_Cat> guess who's going to take the blame for that?
2008-05-16 01:09 < Cyrius> the democrats, probably
2008-05-16 01:10 < Ceiling_Cat> Cyrius - Gallup says otherwise.
2008-05-16 01:10 < bumm13> Dubya is leaving the White House, after all
2008-05-16 01:10 < Ceiling_Cat> as do the 3 special elections that have happened this year
2008-05-16 01:10 < Ceiling_Cat> the democrats picked off 3 very red districts in special elections
2008-05-16 01:10 < bumm13> Congress can't simply replace its members with all new ones
2008-05-16 01:10 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - no, but guess what?
2008-05-16 01:10 < Ceiling_Cat> Most of the competitive senate positions are republicans
2008-05-16 01:10 < gwern> mccain had nothing to do with katrina, mortgages, and his answer to oil is already writing itself
2008-05-16 01:10 < Ceiling_Cat> many of whom have quit :)
2008-05-16 01:10 < Cyrius> Ceiling_Cat: don't mind me, I'm feeling extremely cynical about the whole thing
2008-05-16 01:10 < gwern> voters will blame the outgoing gwb, and mccain will be competing on a level field
2008-05-16 01:11 < Sky2042> gwern: no.
2008-05-16 01:11 < Sky2042> but that's what mccain wants you to think
2008-05-16 01:11 < Sky2042> :P
2008-05-16 01:11 < bumm13> heh
2008-05-16 01:11 < Ceiling_Cat> The democrats are probably not going to pick up all that many house seats (all of which are up, Bumm)
2008-05-16 01:11 < bumm13> which states?
2008-05-16 01:11 < Ceiling_Cat> Most of the low hanging fruit they got in 2006
2008-05-16 01:11 < Ceiling_Cat> they'll probably pick up 10
2008-05-16 01:11 < Ceiling_Cat> that's the number I've heard floated
2008-05-16 01:11 < Ceiling_Cat> on the other hand, the senate is a differnet matter
2008-05-16 01:11 < Ceiling_Cat> remember - republicans are quitting in droves
2008-05-16 01:11 < bumm13> as always
2008-05-16 01:12 < privatemusings> any friendly (or otherwise) admins around?
2008-05-16 01:12 < Ceiling_Cat> PM - what's up?
2008-05-16 01:12 < privatemusings> I'm after a copy of an uncontroversial deleted article...
2008-05-16 01:12 < bumm13> the Senate is always a stodgier deal
2008-05-16 01:12 < Cyrius> Ceiling_Cat will hump your leg, that may count as friendly
2008-05-16 01:12 < privatemusings> US election talk?
2008-05-16 01:12 < privatemusings> I'm having a silly conversation with a friend and would like a copy of
2008-05-16 01:12 < privatemusings> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:NotTheWikipediaWeekly
2008-05-16 01:12 < privatemusings> oops.. hang on....
2008-05-16 01:12 < privatemusings> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_with_a_double-barrelled_name
2008-05-16 01:12 < privatemusings> (sure, I'd like a copy of the podcast too!)
2008-05-16 01:12 < bumm13> less shaking up, richer persons, all that stuff
2008-05-16 01:12 < Ceiling_Cat> PM - private message me your email
2008-05-16 01:13 < privatemusings> oh its ok - it's thepmaccount@gmail.com
2008-05-16 01:13 < bumm13> ...
2008-05-16 01:13 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - except the democratic gains in 2006 are likely to be repeated again this year
2008-05-16 01:13 < Sky2042> bumm13: i don't know that i'd define obama as "richer" in 04.. >.
2008-05-16 01:13 < Sky2042> >.>
2008-05-16 01:13 < bumm13> >_<
2008-05-16 01:13 < Ceiling_Cat> because a whole new batch of seats are up
2008-05-16 01:13 < Ceiling_Cat> along with open ones like Trent Lott
2008-05-16 01:13 < gwern> Sky2042: no. I'm just not seeing where this rage against all republicans and especially including 'honest' 'maverick' of 'integrity' like mccain is coming from
2008-05-16 01:13 < Sky2042> It'll turn back red in '10
2008-05-16 01:13 < privatemusings> and a quick piece of advice? - is it ok to put it in userspace for a bit just to be able to read it?
2008-05-16 01:13 < bumm13> Sky2042: I never mentioned anything about Obama
2008-05-16 01:13 < Ceiling_Cat> who quit to avoid new senate lobbying reforms
2008-05-16 01:13 < gwern> three special elections is a really crappy sample to extrapolate national returns from
2008-05-16 01:13 < bumm13> Obama is kind of a special case, really
2008-05-16 01:13 < Sky2042> bumm13: no, but he was elected to senate in 04, ;P
2008-05-16 01:14 < Ceiling_Cat> gwern - actually, given that they were all "safe" republican districts, it's a pretty good one
2008-05-16 01:14 < bumm13> yes, I know
2008-05-16 01:14 < Ceiling_Cat> if they republicans can't win their safe districts, it's a good bet they're in trouble
2008-05-16 01:14 < gwern> but enough debating for tonight; I've made my bets in the prediction markets, and I'll profit in money and satisfaction as the probability of a mccain victory increases
2008-05-16 01:14 < gwern> 'night
2008-05-16 01:14 < Enok|Walker> what's with these brass colored moths in my room they are creepy
2008-05-16 01:14 < bumm13> Enok: are you in the U.S.?
2008-05-16 01:14 < Enok|Walker> yes
2008-05-16 01:14 * Ceiling_Cat huggles gwern goodnight
2008-05-16 01:14 < bumm13> what state (if you don't mind me asking)?
2008-05-16 01:14 < Enok|Walker> california
2008-05-16 01:14 < bumm13> ah
2008-05-16 01:14 < Enok|Walker> are they killer
2008-05-16 01:14 < bumm13> I'm not familiar with such moths
2008-05-16 01:15 < Enok|Walker> k
2008-05-16 01:15 < bumm13> I've not spent much time in S. Cal., though
2008-05-16 01:15 < Ceiling_Cat> privatemusings - (2nd time) Private message me your email
2008-05-16 01:15 < bumm13> he already public messaged it ;p
2008-05-16 01:15 < Ceiling_Cat> ah
2008-05-16 01:15 < Ceiling_Cat> oops
2008-05-16 01:15 < Enok|Walker> too many GA noms how I review tehm :/
2008-05-16 01:16 < privatemusings> no worries... lots of US election chit chat...
2008-05-16 01:16 < bumm13> Enok|Walker - the moths in western Wash./Oregon are rather bland-looking
2008-05-16 01:16 < privatemusings> I think it's pretty clear now Obama will win, no?
2008-05-16 01:16 < bumm13> maybe
2008-05-16 01:16 < Ceiling_Cat> privatemusings - I was saying I'd give it 75% for Obama
2008-05-16 01:16 < Ceiling_Cat> and 25% for McCain
2008-05-16 01:16 < Sky2042> Ceiling_Cat: no way. 60-40, tops.
2008-05-16 01:16 < Ceiling_Cat> Gwern, on the other hand, said that he put down money McCain would win
2008-05-16 01:16 < Sky2042> nothings been that onesided since reagan :/
2008-05-16 01:16 < bumm13> lots of people will simply want to punish Bush's party
2008-05-16 01:17 < bumm13> that alone is important
2008-05-16 01:17 < Enok|Walker> I got around to doing some yardwork, was pulling weeds and saw all kinds of funky spiders in the dirt
2008-05-16 01:17 < privatemusings> hmmm.. yeah - I'd agree
2008-05-16 01:17 < Ceiling_Cat> bumm13 - yup, and that alone will be enough to crush McCain
2008-05-16 01:17 < privatemusings> (75% / 25 % )
2008-05-16 01:17 < bumm13> not sure about "crush"
2008-05-16 01:17 < Ceiling_Cat> people are hopping mad and looking to sweep the republicans out of power
2008-05-16 01:17 < bumm13> defeat, sure
2008-05-16 01:17 < Ceiling_Cat> 2008 is looking to be a repeat of 2006
2008-05-16 01:17 < bumm13> not all regions of the U.S. are like the Northeast ;)
2008-05-16 01:17 < Sky2042> i'd call it more 58ish, 40ish, and a handful to nader and writeins..
2008-05-16 01:17 < Ceiling_Cat> http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/14/1022156.aspx
2008-05-16 01:18 < Krimpet> I dunno. I can see McCain winning in a landslide. :/
2008-05-16 01:18 < Sky2042> if that much.
2008-05-16 01:18 < bumm13> Krimpet: I can't
2008-05-16 01:18 < Ceiling_Cat> Retiring GOP rep says: And the kicker, "the Republican brand is in the trash can...if we were dog food, they would take us off the shelf."
2008-05-16 01:18 < Ceiling_Cat> Krimpet -the race factor is the big unknown
2008-05-16 01:18 < privatemusings> off topic - wikipedia just got set as a study text for high school seniors in australia!
2008-05-16 01:18 < Krimpet> depending on the candidate, I'm sure the closet racists/sexists will show their real feelings in the polling booth